Newsweek Poll: Obama 44, McCain 41(the 15-point lead is gone)
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Ha ha, the crazy Newsweek just comes out with another poll. Barry's 15-point is gone.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/145737/page/1
A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama's glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.
Obama's rapid drop comes at a strategically challenging moment for the Democratic candidate. Having vanquished Hillary Clinton in early June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience--an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who'd slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June. Obama's reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he was a flip-flopper. In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage.
More seriously, some Obama supporters worry that the spectacle of their candidate eagerly embracing his old rival, Hillary Clinton, and traveling the country courting big donors at lavish fund-raisers, may have done lasting damage to his image as an arbiter of a new kind of politics. This is a major concern since Obama's outsider credentials, have, in the past, played a large part in his appeal to moderate, swing voters. In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June's NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.
Newsweek/LA Times/Gallup/Zogby are the most insane polling firms. I never believed there was a 15-point lead in the first place unless they only polled Dean/Pelosi/Michelle Obama ...
July polls bear little significance for the results in Nov.
isn't this a weird election year to begin with? None of what's happened makes sense on a historical basis. Per recent history, Cheney should have been the GOP's nominee, and Clinton should have been the dem nominee. A freshman senator would never have won the nomination (with the exceptions being JFK and now Obama), and the Vice President would be the assumptive nominee for the part in power. I think that the only polls that can be trusted this year are the ones from the ballot box on Nov. 4th.
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4.62, 0.51
Got your points. Whatever it is, I won't give much credits to the MSM-run polls. Let us do our homework of reaching out as many people as we can to ensure the victory of the Republican Party this November.
JFK was elected to firts Senate termin 1952. Reelected in 1958, he ran for President in 1960. He also served six years in US House prior to first Senate term.
Rod, I'm with you. For one thing, the way questions are presented often determines answers, especially among indies.
For another, sometimes the way the summary is presented is downright misleading. Here's an example. Announcing results of an AP Poll, headlines screamed "Clinton leads McCain by 9 points." So I went to the website and looked at particulars on the poll (not all pollsters are so sharing with their data, I gotta give the AP that credit). Anyway, here's a lift from a column I did about that poll:
Start with the headline: ‘AP Poll: Clinton leads McCain by 9 points.’ The first 20 or so paragraphs in the story extol Clinton (unusual for media, I know). But it’s the last para that really begs a second look and also begs what the hell the AP editors are doing on their lunch break. I’d like to try some myself. Here it is and you tell me why it’s a surprise a Democrat is ahead in this poll. (Feel free to use the comment form below): The poll, taken April 23-27, questioned 1,001 adults nationally, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Included were interviews with 457 Democratic voters and people leaning Democratic, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.6 points, and 346 Republicans or GOP-leaning voters, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.3 points.
So in that poll we got 111 more Dems or Dem-leaners than Repubs or Repub-leaners, with I guess 198 undecideds? 198 phantoms? 198 interviewees on drugs? I’m subtracting the total results from the total polled. No one seemed to notice this—not the guys on CNN, or the guys on Fox, or even McCain’s strategists. Was this actually a poll or a work of fiction?
This poll by any other name would stink just as much.
best, Kay
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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
It's funny to see Newsweek try to explain the discrepancy as declining support for Obama rather than admit that their polling is just disreputable.
the directors will start to do some serious research from the Real Clear Politics website on how often Obama OVERPERFORMED in the polls versus on election day.
clearly he did in New Hampshire where some polls were off by 10% the day BEFORE the election.
he also underperformed in South Dakota, where on Intrade he was favored to win at 83% just 36 hours before the voting, then went on to lose. Indiana he was ahead in some polls just a week before, and in Texas he was ahead in the average of polling a week before the 4 March primary. I think the average Ohio poll was Clinton +3.4 when she ended up winning by 10.
so if we can lay out how many times he did worse versus how many times he did better, we can get a good idea as to how he will do in November based on the rolling averages.
"Small town folks get bitter after which they cling to guns or religion, or antipathy to people who aren't like them, or anti-immigrant sentiment"- Barack Carter Obama
The race for the White House is getting a bit closer. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain down to a statistically insignificant single percentage point, 43% to 42%. Prior to today, Obama had enjoyed at least a four-point advantage every day since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race over a month ago. This is the first time his support has fallen below the 45% level since May 31.
(emphasis mine)
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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
rbdwiggins
McCain is actually doing much better, to the tune of 6 to 10 points better I'd guess due to the Tom Bradley effect. I'll spare a long quote about the TB effect but it's basically people being afraid of openly not supporting a minority candidate in responses to polling. The real vote behind the curtain tends to show minority candidates receiving less votes than they polled.
I think that the TB effect will be even stronger this year with the MSM telling everyone that unless you are backing Saint Nobama, you are a racist, therefore many more people will be telling pollsters something other than the truth.
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NObama...no way!.....McCain '08 !
That said, Rasmussen is automated and the demographics include 3000 Likely Voters.
Therefore, I think it would be hard to quantify its effect in this instance.
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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
But remember we are talking about popular votes. Does anyone know how to translate all these good news in terms of actual electoral votes?
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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
rbdwiggins
I lived out here in CA when Tom Bradley was running, and he was a pretty good but liberal of the old style politician. But truth be told, even in the early 80's out here in LA LA land, there were many many people who were not going to ever vote for an African American. Lets not even talk about the tension today between the Latino and the African American community, another elephant in the room.
You will see in all the polls leading up to the general election a bias of people who will not come out and admit their own personal views on the matter and therefore Nobama will over poll higher than the actual vote he garners once the curtain closes.
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NObama...no way!.....McCain '08 !
Because, deep inside, I was laughing out loud when I read the news that McCain and Governor Arnold were thinking of a strategy to win California. Of course, I find it so ridiculous (my ignorance stinks, err!). The news said that the McCain camp has opened several campaign centers in key counties.
Nobama has a lock on CA, well unless he does something really incredibility stupid to annoy the Hispanic voting block. Teachers unions, and the other usual union stooges will be out working the phones and hitting the street for Nobama, and the CA Republican party is not really know for a GOTV for hard core conservatives, let alone a McCain moderate.
Spending money in California is urinating in the wind.
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NObama...no way!.....McCain '08 !
I agree. But you know, there's nothing wrong in dreaming (or hallucinating?). It's free, as a matter of fact. He! He!
Rod
The right quote is from the Dr..
Dr. Demento...
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NObama...no way!.....McCain '08 !
Yeah? They're coming to take me away?
Ow, the arrogance of the youth!
What can I say. he he!
Thank's for the free laugh.
Look at a state like NJ slowly shifting is a result.
Without McCain advertising there, (I don't think he is current) if New Jersey turns red the Obama is going to have to battle in the most expensive commercial district to reach in order to defend a state that should belong to him.
The tipping point states currently are Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey in order.
Win those six and you are the winner of the election.
I have just visited RealClearPolitics and have found out that McCain has been closing the gaps in those states, although the most recently reported state surveys were conducted in June (slowly but steadily).
Is it therefore safe to assume that McCain is really gaining momentum despite the biased reporting by the MSM? Does he really have "a real chance" in November given the current political environment? (Sorry but I brought this up because of my own subtle pessimism. He! He!)
Of greater significance from the same Rasmussen poll:
In a race that has been so steady for so long, it is easy to overreact to the slightest movement. It will take another few days to see if this is merely statistical noise or if it marks a slight change from the stability of the race that has been evident since Obama wrapped up the nomination. Either way, the campaign remains surprisingly competitive in a year where the fundamentals so heavily favor the Democrats. Thirty-five percent (35%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind before November. Thirty-three percent (33%) say the same about McCain. It’s going to be an interesting few months.
(emphasis mine)
Interesting, indeed.
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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
1973 account of McCain's POW experience in his own words:
http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/2008/01/28/john-mccain-prisoner-of-w...
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
McCain has strengthened lately in states like GA, NC & VA. He's also narrowed the gap in NJ.
But, if you believe Rasmussen (and, on some of these states, I'm starting to wonder...) McCain is actually behind in MT, tied in ND, and way behind in MN & WI & NM.
So it's a mixed bag.
... Obama's gonna win Indiana like I'm going to win a wet t-shirt contest over Carmen Electra and Jessica Alba.
Hang all traitors and secessionists! Hang them high!
- Me
... and you can pretty much automatically discount any poll between now and election day that shows the spread above 10 points in favor of either candidate. It's going to be another really close election, right down to the wire. Close elections are here to stay, IMO.
Hang all traitors and secessionists! Hang them high!
- Me
On "I never believed there was a 15-point lead in the first place", I agree.
On "Newsweek just comes out with another poll. Barry's 15-point is gone.", I smell something fishy.
I don't know what's the catch. But I suspect that the MSM-controlled polls want to give the month of July to McCain. I guess that the recent article that "as per history, candidate leading in month of July usually doesn't win in November" is getting into the nerves of Obama Camp and its surrogates, MSM.
I dunno. Just my wild guess.